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Cancellation policy:  48 hours in advance of the program for a no-charge cancellation.

The views expressed by the speakers do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of CFA Society Colorado, its Board of Directors or its members. CFA Society Colorado does not guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.

March Book Club

March 01, 2018
11:30 AM - 6:00 PM

Various Locations

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.
— Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." 


In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. 


Superforecasting
 offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

LOCATIONS

Join us on Thursday, March 1st at the following times and locations to discuss this month's reading:

Downtown - 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM
Merrill Lynch - Republic Plaza
370 17th St., Suite 5500
Denver, CO 80202
RSVP to jdavis@sfcepartners.com or call 303-893-5007

Tech Center - 5:00 PM to 6:00 PM
Koelbel Library
5955 S. Holly St.
Centennial, CO 80121
RSVP to mspurgeon3@gmail.com or call 563-419-0370